South Korea’s population could shrink to just 7.5 million in 100 years to fall below Seoul’s current population, according to a newly released projection. As the population ages rapidly, it is expected that each working-age person aged 15 to 65 will need to support 1.4 elderly individuals.

The Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future (KPPIF), a think tank specializing in demographic issues, published its 2025 demographic report forecasting long-term trends on Wednesday. The report projects that if current patterns persist, Korea’s population will decline to 7.53 million by 2125, or just 15 percent of the current 51.68 million. This would leave the entire country with fewer people than the 9.33 million now living in Seoul, signaling a drastic depopulation scenario. Unlike Statistics Korea, which typically provides forecasts only 50 years ahead, KPPIF analyzed population trends over a full century -from 2025 to 2125 - using the cohort component method.

The rate of population decline is projected to accelerate. Under a medium-growth scenario, which assumes a moderate pace of decline, the population would fall to 70 percent of the current level by 2075 and drop further to 35 percent by 2125. A KPPIF official explained this is due to “population momentum,” where declining birth rates lead to fewer individuals able to have children in the next generation, compounding the decline.

The report also incorporates public sentiment by analyzing approximately 60,000 posts from the workplace community platform Blind, capturing candid views from individuals in their 20s to 40s. In discussions about marriage, terms like “money” and “housing” appeared far more often than “love.” Posts on childbirth similarly emphasized economic burdens as the central concern.

“Our findings show that for younger generations, marriage and childbirth are no longer matters of free personal choice, but are heavily influenced by financial conditions,” KPPIF researchers said.

To address the demographic crisis, the report calls for bold policy measures. Recommendations include expanding support for childbirth and parenting, raising the retirement age and promoting continued employment, and reforming immigration policies. Most critically, the institute urges a shift toward a productivity-centered economic structure to align with the realities of a shrinking population.

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